County Election & Demographics · 2026 Governor Forecast

Election

Demographics · 2020

Change 2020→2024

Generic Ballot · May 2026

RealClear Avg

D+5.7

FiftyPlusOne

D+5.0

Morning Consult

D+3.0

Emerson (LV)

D+10.0

National Environment Swing

D+5.2

Applied at 0.55× governor elasticity

R+15EvenD+15

Model Settings

State Gov. Offsets

2022 gov vs 2024 presidential

Incumbent Bonus ±3pp

Incumbency personal vote

Gov. Elasticity 0.55×

Governors less partisan

Projected State Flips

Rep → Dem

—

Dem → Rep

—

Projected Dem govs

—

Competitive Races

Rating Legend

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Model: 2024 statewide presidential margin (vote-weighted) + state governor offset (2022 data) + incumbency ±3pp + national swing × 0.55 elasticity. ★ = estimated offset. County colors show local variation within states.

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Vote Swing

Flips Dem

Flips Rep

No Race

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